Preparing for the August Covid-19 Wave in Canada

We’ve learned much about COVID-19 since the first infection was announced in 2019. This has helped us develop better treatments and better prevention strategies. We’ve learned that COVID has settled into a fairly consistent annual pattern. There’s a smaller summer wave (end of July to mid-September) and a larger winter wave (November to January). The larger wave ends around the time flu season starts.

This year the summer wave has started in the United States. Wastewater concentrations of COVID are starting to increase in southern and western states (yes they are still low, but they are trending upwards). ER visits with proven COVID cases are also growing in the southwest. So the wave is beginning.

As I write this, the Canadian wave has not yet begun. In particular, the Ontario numbers are still low overall. Local fluctuations are occurring however, and if trends hold as they have done over the past few years, we can expect the COVID wave to start in August, and peak in early September.

The current U.S. wave is due to an Omicron strain of the virus designated as Nimbus. Thankfully, it appears that the Omicron strains cause less serious infections (though may spread more quickly). This means that existing immunity from prior infection and immunizations continue to provide some meaningful protection against severe disease.

With that in mind, what should Canadians do to prepare for this summer wave? For healthy people, I actually think we’ve reached a point where it’s unreasonable to say “avoid COVID at all costs.” With COVID being so widespread and so frequent, our goal should now be to take a risk-based approach.

What EVERYONE Should Do

We all benefit from better air quality, particularly indoor air quality. While all of us love air conditioning, opening windows when practical really helps increase airflow circulation and is very beneficial. Now let’s be clear if it’s an exceptionally hot day, or if it’s a wildfire smog filled day where it looks like the surface of Venus , then obviously the windows should stay closed. But when practical, opening windows is good for air quality.

Make sure you have HEPA air purifiers. I have one in every room in my office. Putting an air purifier in high volume rooms in your home is a good idea.

Social gatherings should also be outside. Fresh air and sunshine – just what your grandmother ordered.

I appreciate this next bit of advice will go over like a lead stone for some people, but I think it’s important that you keep a few well-fitted N95 masks around as well. You can buy these online. I’m not suggesting you need to wear them all the time, I believe we’re past that. However, in the event that a wave hits and you have to go to a crowded environment, or you’re feeling unwell, it’s better to have these ready and available, rather than scrambling to find one at the last minute.

Similarly rapid antigen tests are also useful to keep at home. You can get these from most drug stores. They are unfortunately a little less sensitive for Omicron than they were against the early variants, but they’re still fairly useful. Again, I’m not suggesting you swab every day if you’re feeling well. But if you do develop flu-like symptoms in August, then it’s helpful to already have the tests at home. Please note that a negative test does not completely rule out an infection, especially during the first 24 hours of illness. Doing a second test a day or two after your first test will improve the accuracy of the test.

If you do become ill, then of course, I would hope that you would have the good manners to stay at home. Symptoms of a covid infection are generally the same as most other respiratory illnesses (sore throat, cough, low-grade fever, fatigue). Most physicians now do virtual visits, and so you can still arrange to speak to a physician or video call them if you’ve got these types of symptoms, without infecting their whole waiting room. If you are sick, please have the common decency to avoid visiting people who have significant health issues, as those people, if they get COVID, have a significantly higher chance of deteriorating rapidly.

Get immunized! Most patients should get a yearly Covid shot, generally in the fall. Enough of the clot shot/fakecine/frankenshot/globalist serum/fauci juice nonsense. By Aug of 2024 over 13.7 BILLION Covid Vaccines were given worldwide (including over a 100 million in Canada). None of overwrought, neurotic claims about how we’re all going to die if we got the Covid shots have come true. Protect your self and your loved ones and get an annual vaccine (click here to get your shot).

And of course, there is the same advice that grandmothers have been giving forever. Eat right, exercise regularly, maintain a healthy weight, control your diabetes, quit smoking, take your vitamins (2,000 international units of vitamin D daily and 500-1000 mg of Vitamin C daily would be a good start for Canadians). Doing all of that will not prevent you from getting COVID, but they certainly are associated with a much better outcome if you do get COVID.

What Those Who are Elderly or Have Significant Health Issues Should Do

In additions to the above, significantly ill or immunocompromised patients might benefit in getting a Covid vaccine twice a year. Please discuss this with your doctor. Additionally, knowing that they are at higher risk, they should be prepared to avoid indoor activities with the general public during the coming Covid wave. For example, many grocery stores deliver now, so there’s no need to go shopping. Avoid larger indoor events where possible. If travelling by bus or plane, just go ahead and wear a mask during a Covid Wave. Call your doctor when you first get sick as you may qualify for some of the newer treatments for Covid.

The last word.

This year appears to be trending for a moderate COVID wave as opposed to a severe one in August. If we all take reasonable, cautious precautions, we can hopefully keep it under control.

Innovation Winter

Recently, the Ontario Government announced plans for a province wide family practice record system. I was debating what to write about it when I came across this post from Dr. Shahin on LinkedIn. While I don’t agree with all of it, it’s an important point of view. He’s kindly agreed to allow me to post this as a guest blog, and I encourage you to give his LinkedIn page a read.

Dr. Ilan Shahin is a Family Medicine specialist who serves as the Primary Care Lead for Patient Attachment for the Central West Ontario Health Team (CW OHT)

He’s also a Board Member and Secretary-Treasurer of the Ontario College of Family Physicians (OCFP), has an MD and Master of Business Administration (MBA) from McGill University and is a co-founder of ConsultLoop, a former e-referral platform.  Basically a whole lot smarter than I am.

Innovation Winter is a Canadian tradition of killing off product categories with the whisper of a large procurement.

Every so often in digital health, governments see small companies sprouting around a category, and decide to procure The Thing for the entire jurisdiction. This is ambitious, well-intended, and comes with its fair share of boosters. E-consults, e-referrals, and e-prescribing all had similar stories. However, these didn’t work out as intended.

E-consults remains a clunky product with uptake well below its potential, when once there was a physician-led startup that offered a nice mobile experience that was much easier to use and even log on to.

E-referrals is still maturing when it’s been 10 years since an original RFP was won via a single LHIN with the thought that it would be rolled out across the province. There too, there was a company (which I co-founded) that built the referral platform at less than 5% the cost of that initial RFP, produced unprecedented and yet unmatched wait time data, and had pilots shut down because of whispers that e-referrals would be deployed imminently across the province.

E-prescribing has the story of Infoway’s landmark project that was shut down after hundreds of millions in spending, with market penetration that was only a few percentage points of total prescriptions despite the virtualization pressure of a pandemic. Setting standards for companies serving the pharmacy market could have harnessed their competitive drives, rather than relying on one platform with its limited agility.

In each case, government comes with good intentions, and tries to build The Thing. In doing so, they create what is effectively a monopoly, which risks insulating the product from market forces that produce better value, and lower costs.

However we don’t need a large procurement to actually have happened, for the monopoly or oligopoly to be entrenched, in order to kill innovation. Just the mere whisper that something big is coming is enough to make rational actors across the system wait and see. This also includes small businesses, which is where the imperative to listen to customers, the urgency to improve, and the competition on price and quality actually lives. Ingenuity lives there too, in the companies facing short cash runways, the incumbent complex, and the need to prove themselves as trustworthy both clinically, operationally, and ethically.

Government has to be careful about what it does to the marketplace when it acts. Sometimes in raising its hand, it ushers in an innovation winter, which has the potential to block far more value in a robust, competitive market, than it uncovers in a RFP-led closed market approach.

Let government focus on building the strongest marketplace, driving to common standards to uplift the market’s value, while ensuring fair competition to harness the cost and quality pressures that come with it.

Market-making. That’s the game. Innovation winters are signs of failure.

Please Don’t Move to the Georgian Triangle (Collingwood, Clearview, Wasaga Beach)

Wait, doc, what’s this all about? You’re asking people not to move to where you live?!?

Yes. Please don’t move to this area.

But you always tell others how wonderful an area this is!

This is indeed true. I love living here. I consider myself very blessed for having come here 34 (!) years ago. We are a few minutes’ drive away from the world’s longest freshwater beach, a few minutes’ drive away from ski hills. There’s golf, boating, too many outdoor activities to list. I enjoy the trails myself and often bicycle to my office during the warmer months. A true four seasons resort area.

Is the problem the people?

Not at all. The people here are kind, generous and extremely supportive. Plus there’s an old farmers mentality in a lot of them (that’s a good thing). I’m grateful they have allowed me into their lives. It’s an honour to help them.

Is the problem the growth in the area?

I’d be lying if I said I was completely happy with the increase in the population over the past ten years. The towns have gotten quite crowded, and the roads are busy. Bicycling on the roads is now classified as a survival sport. And yes, I have seen traffic jams, which is something I never thought I’d see. But no, that’s not it exactly.

Okay, doc, you’ve got me really confused. What exactly is the issue then?

It’s the healthcare system.

That makes no sense. You’ve often talked about how proud you are of the fact that you were the inaugural chair of the Georgian Bay Family Health Team, and how closely the doctors in the area worked together to form a really cohesive medical community.

This is true. The Georgian Bay Family Health Team, under the leadership of their Grand Poobah (inside joke), Maria LaRose, is, in my opinion, the best health team in the province. The doctors and allied health care staff all work well together. We formed the first community wide Electronic Records system in the Province. It’s still the only one in Ontario that is integrated with other health care partners. It’s the best medical community in the province.

Building with the GBFHT Main office

Okay, so is it the hospital? Goodness knows you’ve had issues with administration in the past.

Actually, we’ve been very fortunate to have better administrators at the hospital the last couple of decades. The nursing staff and other allied healthcare professionals (physiotherapists, occupational therapists, pharmacists, respiratory therapists, and so on – apologies to those I missed) really are excellent and hardworking as a team. They really want to help patients. The problem, of course, is that they are overworked.

Collingwood General andMarine Hospital

So then your issue is with the capacity of the local healthcare system?

Exactly. You see, currently, we have seven thousand people in our neck of the woods who don’t have a family doctor. If you move to the area, you will be number 7,001. Therefore, you will wind up going to our after hours clinic, or the hospital emergency department, which will increase the stress on those facilities.

This is, of course, not the fault of the individual physicians, nurses, allied health care workers. The blunt reality is the health care infrastructure is not there.

But I thought you guys were building a new hospital?

We are. BUT. We’ve known we’ve needed a new hospital since the early 2010’s, and despite many pleas, won’t start digging until 2029. We are hoping to complete in 2032. Various layers of inept government bureaucracy at the Ministry of Health have thrown many roadblocks in the construction process. As a result, our over burdened hospital puts patients in “unconventional places.

You mean like hallway medicine?

Actually, I believe the term now is “chair care“because even the hallways are full.

Wonderful. Are the local townships not doing enough to recruit doctors?

It’s not really a township responsibility to look after the healthcare system. Now, there are some local efforts (with a bit of success) to get more family doctors in the area. However, that’s a slow process until the wider provincial problems are fixed.

You’re saying don’t come to the Georgian Triangle, but don’t these issues occur elsewhere?

Absolutely. I mentioned the Georgian Triangle just because it’s the area I know the best. Ontario has many beautiful areas for people to live in. Lots of different type of communities to suit all needs from small town, to large urban settings. But, if you currently live in an area where you already have a family doctor and you have a number of health issues, you really may want to reconsider moving until you can assure yourself of getting continuous, comprehensive, ongoing care in the community. Without a local family doctor, you will be getting itinerant care seeing different doctors at walk in clinics or Emergency departments, and that’s not good for your health.

So don’t move anywhere if you already have a family doctor?

Well look, people often have to move for many reasons. Work, family, retirement. I get it. BUT, I would encourage you, if at all possible, to scope out not just the amenities of the area you are thinking of, but also check the local health system out. That is something most people don’t do, they just expect health care to be there for them. That mentality needs to change.

And don’t move to the Georgian Triangle?

Yah, don’t move here. Our doctors (and hospital, and home care) are full.

What Does the Leadership Change at the OMA Mean for Doctors?

On Thursday, Physicians across Ontario received an alert from Dr. Sharon Bal, Board Chair of the Ontario Medical Association (OMA) about a leadership change at the organization. Kim Moran is no longer the CEO. I think it’s safe to say the announcement caught most physicians off guard.

An OMA past president, Dr. Andrew Park, was appointed as interim CEO. I certainly wish Dr. Park well, although I note that he has, to my knowledge, not really run a comparably sized organization. I would also point out that while the title he had was “President”, the role really was media spokesperson (as I found out the hard way when I had the job). I do give him credit for holding an executive MBA, which makes him smarter than me.

Having recently been President, he would have a good idea of what’s going on internally in the organization, and for the sake of all physicians across Ontario, I hope he does well in the role while the search for a permanent replacement is carried out.

This doesn’t change the fact that the timing is exceptionally unusual. The continuation of the OMA’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) is in just a couple of more days (June 23 at 6:30 pm). The agenda has a number of member-driven motions that, in my opinion, are designed to make the OMA more responsive to physicians and a stronger advocate for us. Such a significant leadership change before what is shaping up to be a very important meeting is going to raise eyebrows.

Medical politics is a funny business.

But more importantly, what does it mean for physicians right now? In my opinion, it is even more essential for all of us to show up at the continuation of the AGM. For those of us who have been frustrated with certain things that have gone on at the OMA, this does not mean that we can say, “Oh, good. The CEO is leaving. Things will be different,” and ignore the OMA again. I continue to maintain that the OMA is at its best and most effective when members keep a close eye on it and prevent it from going off the rails. If the member motions don’t pass, in my opinion, what’s going to happen is that the OMA will simply revert to its old ways and non-physicians will continue to have decision making authority over physicians.

This is not acceptable.

The first member motion is to end the idea of having non-physician Board Directors at the OMA. This has been discussed ad nauseum and I won’t restate the rationale here. You can just look at my blog on why the OMAs AGM really matters this year, or on why I hate non-physician Board Directors (I don’t).

But the second motion is also incredibly important. It prevents the OMA from screening or gatekeeping Board Director candidates. Dr. Paul Hacker has done a really excellent analysis of this motion. He points out, quite clearly:

“The OMA currently uses a third-party vetting process for Director nominees, overseen by the Governance and Nominating Committee. The GNC is the only body that sees the complete list of candidates and the full vetting results. The criteria weighting used, the rankings produced, and the reasons for including or excluding specific candidates are not shared with the full Board. The Board is asked to approve a slate based on information it does not have access to in its entirety.”

This is just plain wrong and needs to be fixed.

Dr. Hacker was going to do a guest blog for me. But with the news about the CEO, I felt compelled to write a different blog about the importance of the AGM. However, I strongly encourage you to read his blog on why the second members motion is so important.

There are also other members motions that I am not seconding that physicians really should have a say on.

However, I guarantee you that none of these changes will occur, regardless of who the CEO is, unless all of us show up at the AGM and vote in favour. As Dr. Greg Dubord if fond of pointing out, the “Iron law of oligarchy“means that without members acting, organizations insulate themselves from member accountability, prioritizing institutional preservation over their founding mandate. In essence, they wind up placing themselves above the members. So please, please, please, if you haven’t already registered, do so by clicking here and attend the meeting.

You must register by Monday June 22 at 6:00 pm.

The OMA will only be as strong as the amount of supervision and guidance that physicians give it. This leadership change does not mean we should take our foot off the gas pedal. We all need to attend the AGM and make our voices heard.

FHO+: The Good, The Bad, and the Reality on the Ground

My thanks to Dr. Wael Guirguis, (pictured inset) who had a superb post on LinkedIN that he’s kindly allowed me to reproduce as a guest blog. Dr. Guirguis got his MD in Egypt in 2003 and has been practicing in Canada since 2011. He’s the lead physician for the Fairway FHO and provides comprehensive care for patients at the Danton Medical Centres. A thought provoking read which I hope you’ll enjoy.

Over the past couple of months, Family physicians across Ontario have started experiencing the reality of the new FHO+ model in day-to-day practice.The goals behind the reform are understandable.

Improve access. Support continuity of care. Encourage after-hours coverage. Create more accountability in primary care.

These are important goals, and family physicians should absolutely be part of improving the system. Some aspects of FHO+ deserve recognition. Organized after-hours coverage matters. Continuity of care matters. Accountability matters. But as implementation unfolds, many front-line physicians are beginning to identify operational consequences that may not have been fully appreciated during policy design.

The Efficiency Problem

One of the biggest concerns is the relationship between productivity and compensation efficiency. Under FHO+, physicians are now heavily constrained by hourly and monthly thresholds tied to direct patient care time. In practical terms, physicians can work harder, see more patients, and still experience a significant reduction in compensation efficiency. The unintended consequence is that the model may discourage efficiency during regular clinic hours.

A physician who develops efficient workflows, uses technology effectively, and safely improves patient throughput may actually feel penalized for doing so. That creates a concerning signal within primary care. Healthcare systems should reward:

  • safe patient access
  • continuity
  • quality
  • responsible innovation
  • sustainability
  • burnout prevention

Not unintentionally encourage physicians to slow down to remain within operational thresholds.

The Hidden Mental Burden

One of the least discussed consequences of FHO+ is the cognitive burden it creates for physicians throughout the day. Doctors are now not only thinking about patient care, they are also continuously tracking:

  • direct care hours
  • monthly hour accumulation
  • reimbursement thresholds
  • after-hours eligibility
  • continuity metrics
  • outside-use implications
  • whether additional work will still be compensated fairly

That constant background calculation creates mental fatigue. Family physicians already operate in an environment of nonstop decision-making: clinical care, inbox management, staffing issues, documentation, urgent requests, abnormal results, hospital follow-ups, and administrative work. Adding another layer of continuous operational tracking changes the psychology of practice itself. Instead of focusing entirely on patient care and clinic efficiency, physicians may begin constantly asking themselves:

“Am I crossing another threshold?” That is not a healthy foundation for sustainable primary care.

The Bigger Problem: Complexity Itself

This discussion is larger than FHO+ alone, It reflects a broader pattern in healthcare reform. With each reform cycle, the Schedule of Benefits seems to become increasingly complex rather than simpler.

New rules. New modifiers. New exceptions. New thresholds. New formulas. New tracking requirements. Yet very rarely do reforms focus on reducing front-line operational complexity for physicians. And complexity itself has consequences, It increases cognitive load, administrative dependency, billing anxiety, operational inefficiency, and eventually burnout. Complex healthcare systems may be unavoidable. But complex systems still require simple front-line workflows. That principle is often overlooked.

Continuity of Care Should Be Managed by the System, Not Punitive Billing Rules

Continuity of care matters. Family physicians understand that better continuity leads to better long-term outcomes, fewer fragmented records, reduced duplication, and safer patient care. But enforcing continuity through increasingly complicated physician payment penalties is not the right approach. A simpler and more effective solution already exists. If the Ministry of Health wants to strengthen continuity of care within capitation models, the responsibility should sit primarily with the system itself, not through constant billing complexity imposed on physicians.

For example: If a rostered patient repeatedly seeks care outside their enrolled medical home beyond a defined threshold, the Ministry could automatically review or remove the patient from the roster. The patient would be notified directly by the Ministry of Health not by the physician. This creates clear accountability while avoiding unnecessary tension between doctors and patients. Most importantly, it removes one of the major hidden burdens currently placed on family physicians: constantly monitoring continuity metrics, outside use calculations, and roster penalties while simultaneously trying to run busy clinics.

Continuity of care should be encouraged through smart system design and patient accountability  not by forcing physicians to navigate increasingly complicated billing formulas and penalties. Doctors should focus on delivering care. The healthcare system should focus on managing the system.

The Human Side Nobody Talks About

Most family physicians are not trying to maximize billing. They are trying to:

  • keep clinics financially sustainable
  • reduce patient wait times
  • manage inbox overload
  • supervise staff
  • complete documentation
  • respond to urgent patient needs
  • avoid burnout

When systems unintentionally penalize high-functioning clinics for being efficient, morale suffers quickly. And eventually, patients feel the impact.

A Better Path Forward

Primary care reform is necessary. But reforms work best when governments collaborate closely with front-line physicians who actually operate clinics every day. The goal should not simply be measuring physician hours. The goal should be:

  • maximizing safe patient access
  • improving continuity
  • reducing unnecessary administrative burden
  • supporting sustainable family medicine
  • encouraging innovation and operational efficiency
  • protecting physicians from burnout

Ontario has extraordinary family physicians who want the system to succeed. The question is whether the system is being designed in a way that allows them to succeed too.

Why You Should Attend the OMA’s (Continued) Annual General Meeting

Last week, the Ontario Medical Association announced that the continuation of the 2026 Annual General Meeting (AGM) will occur on Tuesday, June 23rd, at 6:30 PM. This meeting will be virtual only. Once again, proxies will not be allowed. I would suggest that it is essential for every member to make an effort to attend.

My three loyal readers will remember that there were six member proposals (4 by Dr. Conte seconded by myself). Only one got voted on at the May 7 meeting, and the remainder will be voted on, on June 23. Regardless of what you may think of the individual motions, I would suggest the fact that members take the time to make proposals, and attend to vote is a good thing. It is important, as I’ve learned over the years, to pay attention to what’s going on at the OMA because so much of our livelihood depends on them.

This year’s AGM is proof of what can happen when members show up and make their voices heard. Now, I was criticized for my blog on the last AGM for calling out the shenanigans that occurred at the meeting. This all surrounded what were in my opinion, the two most important motions.

Both motions pertained to removing non-physicians from having voting authority over physicians at the Board of the OMA. To be abundantly clear, neither of these motions would have prevented the organization from seeking external expert advice on an ongoing basis. Organizations, particularly advocacy organizations like the OMA, do that all the time, as they absolutely should. Physicians are not experts in everything, and seeking out the best possible advice in different areas from experts in their fields is always a good thing to do.

No. These motions would simply have said that after getting the advice, and carefully reviewing it, the voting authority for who makes decisions at the organization should fall only on physicians. Only physicians have innate knowledge and lived in experience of how the healthcare system affects them. Only physicians will inherently know when such advice, well intentioned though it may be, will actually help, or those times when it is unhelpful.

At the last meeting, for reasons that are unclear to me, as I’m not a lawyer, the first motion, which would have removed non-physicians from the Board immediately, required two thirds of a vote. This motion, after much debate, got fifty-three percent. Now, I fully expected some of our colleagues to throw up roadblocks to the first motion. That happened. I won’t do a line by line analysis of that as I don’t think it’s relevant, but if it had just stopped there, I probably wouldn’t have made any comments about “shenanigans” or “the usual suspects.”

What happened was that once it became apparent that the majority of physicians at the meeting did want not want non-physicians voting at the Board level, it became crystal clear that the second motion, which only required fifty percent plus one, would likely pass. A friend of mine, who also attended virtually, commented to me, “I wasn’t in the room, but I swear I could hear the jaws drop and the shock from many of the people in the room.”

Rather than accept that the debate had already been had, that all of the points had already been made, and accept the will of the membership, some of our colleagues continued to try and delay the process and play games. Eventually they succeeded. The meeting was paused and now we have to do it all again. And those are the shenanigans that had me, quite frankly, extremely annoyed.

At any rate, the membership has another chance. If we all show up, we can vote on the second motion and determine if we do, in fact, want a large part of our futures decided by non-physicians. (Non-physicians have just over twenty-five percent of the vote at the board currently).

Other motions that are important for us to decide upon include the director election ballots process. This year marked, as far as I’m concerned, a new low in how the board director elections were run. The OMA screened candidates for board director and limited who could run based on their own criteria, that was fed to a third party firm to try to avoid blame. In essence, the OMA chose who we physicians could vote for. Furthermore, they impugned the reputation of one of the president elect candidates by printing subjective opinions about his social media posts.

The second motion would stop the OMA screening candidates and allow the members to pick who they want leading them.

Other motions include eligibility for board if you had previously held the role of president in the association. Once again, it is really the decision of the members, not the OMA, to rule out who can and can’t run (and yes, there’s a conflict of interest in there for me). There’s also a motion recommending the OMA not access personal tax information. The OMA has never actually accessed personal tax information despite significant misinformation about this. However, I personally see no harm in restating that again. And finally, there’s actually a really good idea asking the OMA to support their districts by sharing email lists in compliance with privacy legislation. Our districts do need strengthening, and this would help with that.

None of these changes, however, can occur without physicians showing up. It will take time. It will take effort. It is a couple of hours out our very busy days. I feel bad asking for members to sacrifice this amount of time, but at the end of the day, if we don’t pay attention to what’s going at the OMA, we will not get the results we deserve.

I encourage all Ontario physicians to register early for the AGM by clicking the link below:

Register for June 23, AGM

The Shrinkflation of Family Medicine

Dr. Julie Wilson (pictured inset) had a superb post on LinkedIN that she has kindly allowed me to reproduce here as a guest blog. A much smarter person than I, she is a family doctor,has been named one of Canada’s 100 Most Powerful Women, Top 40 under 40, 3 x Business award winner and much much more. I encourage you to follow her for more of her excellent insights.

There is a word for when the packaging stays the same but there is less inside. In groceries, we call it shrinkflation. In family medicine, the same process has been underway for years and we still do not have a proper name for it. The phenomenon is real, the consequences are significant, and the cause is structural rather than professional.

It deserves to be examined plainly.

What Family Medicine Was Designed to Do

When I completed my family medicine residency, the expectations were unambiguous. A graduating family physician needed to be able to deliver their own patients’ babies, follow them in hospital, suture lacerations in the office, perform biopsies and joint injections, insert IUDs, provide prenatal care, administer pediatric vaccines, conduct children’s wellness visits, and manage mental health from assessment through to ongoing treatment. You were trained to treat and manage every condition as though there were no specialists present, because in Canada, there often are not.

This was not an aspirational standard. It was the functional design of the role. Family medicine in Canada was conceived as the foundation of a system in which primary care would carry the load that specialist infrastructure could not be expected to cover across a country of this geographic scale and population distribution. Broad scope was not a luxury. It was a requirement.

What Has Changed Since the Pandemic

The erosion of that scope has been incremental and largely unremarked upon in public discourse. Since the pandemic, a substantial number of family physicians, including those whose practice is confined entirely to clinic-based work, have stopped performing procedures and providing services that were previously considered core to the role. Biopsies, suturing, contraceptive management, prenatal care, pediatric immunisation, children’s wellness visits, mental health assessments, and ongoing counselling have migrated out of the family practice setting into referral queues, specialist offices, and in many cases, emergency departments.

It would be tempting to attribute this to shifting training norms or changing physician preferences, and those factors are not entirely irrelevant. But they are not the primary explanation. Family physicians did not collectively decide to de-skill because they lost interest in comprehensive practice. The more accurate explanation is that the financial and structural conditions required to sustain comprehensive practice have deteriorated to the point where, for many clinics, broad scope is no longer economically viable.

The Economics of Comprehensive Care

Comprehensive care costs more to deliver than narrow care. It requires longer appointment slots, better equipment, more qualified support staff, more expansive insurance coverage, and considerably more time spent on coordination and documentation that does not generate a separate billing code. These are real costs that the clinic model must absorb, and for a significant proportion of BC primary care clinics, the current overhead structure cannot absorb them.

The 2025 Financial Review of Primary Care Clinics in Vancouver, produced by the Vancouver Division of Family Practice, provides useful context. Average operating expenses per physician run approximately $110,000 per year. A clinic operating at 25% overhead on a physician billing $450,000 generates $112,500 in revenue, leaving almost nothing above the average expense threshold and no margin whatsoever for the additional infrastructure that comprehensive practice requires. At overhead rates of 20% or below, which are increasingly common in recruitment conversations driven by alternative-revenue clinic models, the arithmetic becomes impossible well before extended scope enters the picture.

The result is a rational economic response to an irrational structural situation. Clinics on constrained margins contract their service offering to the minimum sustainable model. Services that require additional time, equipment, or staff are referred out. The physician’s role narrows not because of a change in values or training, but because the financial model of the clinic cannot support anything broader.

The Systemic Consequences

The consequences of this contraction do not remain contained within the family practice setting. They redistribute across the health system in ways that are cumulative, expensive, and in many cases preventable.

Canada operates on the stated premise of a primary care-based health system. The logic of that model is that a robust and comprehensive primary care foundation reduces the demand on specialist services, emergency departments, and acute care capacity. When the foundation contracts, the load it was carrying does not disappear. It transfers.

Every laceration that is no longer sutured in a family physician’s office becomes an emergency department visit. Every mental health presentation that no longer has a landing place in primary care adds to the demand on crisis services and inpatient psychiatric capacity that is already stretched beyond its design parameters. Every biopsy that moves from a family physician’s office into a specialist referral queue adds weeks or months to the interval between a patient’s first concern and a clinical diagnosis. Every prenatal patient who cannot access continuity of care through their family physician adds complexity to obstetric and hospital-based maternity services.

Specialty wait times lengthen not only because of specialist supply constraints but because specialists are now managing presentations that a well-resourced primary care system would have handled earlier and closer to home. Emergency departments are not simply overwhelmed by volume. They are absorbing a category of care that primary care has progressively stopped providing, without any corresponding expansion of emergency capacity to meet that transferred demand.

The diagnostic lag that results from this redistribution carries its own clinical cost. The interval between a patient identifying a concern and receiving a diagnosis has extended from days to months for an increasing range of conditions. In oncology, in cardiology, in neurology, earlier diagnosis consistently correlates with better outcomes. The compression of primary care scope is not a neutral administrative adjustment. It has clinical consequences that are difficult to measure at the individual encounter level but become visible at the population level in outcomes data.

Patients who have only ever experienced the contracted version of family medicine do not recognise what is absent, because they have no baseline for comparison. They do not know that the referral they received could have been managed in the same appointment by a physician who is fully trained and willing to do the work. The shrinkflation is invisible to those who have never seen the full product.

The Path Back

Restoring comprehensive family medicine will not happen through exhortation. Physicians who have adapted their practice to the structural constraints of their clinic model will not re-expand their scope because the profession asks them to. The conditions that made contraction rational need to change before expansion becomes possible.

Several directions are worth pursuing seriously. Funding models need to reflect the genuine cost of delivering comprehensive primary care, including the additional infrastructure, time, and staff that broad scope requires. The LFP billing model in BC represents progress in recognising longitudinal value, but it does not yet fully account for the procedural and extended scope work that a comprehensive practice involves.

Training culture matters as well. If residents observe that the physicians they are learning from no longer perform the procedures they are being taught, the implicit message is that those skills are aspirational rather than practical. Preserving broad scope in residency training requires that the training environment model it, which requires that the clinics where training occurs are financially equipped to sustain it.

Record transfer and cross-clinic infrastructure also warrant attention. A physician who might otherwise take on complex procedural or prenatal care is significantly less likely to do so if the clinical history required to do it safely is inaccessible because of the fragmented and non-interoperable state of EMR systems across BC. The administrative friction of comprehensive practice needs to be reduced, not compounded.

Finally, the conversation about what is being lost needs to happen at a scale and with a directness that it has not yet achieved. Policymakers, health system planners, and the public are not well positioned to advocate for the restoration of something whose disappearance they have not been clearly shown. Making the shrinkflation visible, naming it, costing it, and tracing its consequences through the system is a necessary precondition for addressing it.

The physicians are still trained. The capability is present. What is required now is a serious, sustained effort to rebuild the structural conditions that make comprehensive family medicine not only possible, but financially sustainable for the clinics and physicians who want to practice it properly.

Dr. Julie Wilson, MD, CCFP, FCFP

Use AI NOW to Reduce Bureaucratic Bloat in Health Care

On the heels of my last blog on the Auditor General’s report on AI systems in Ontario, I was asked “how then can AI help in health care?” Certainly policy makers often talk a LOT about how AI can help. Better diagnoses! Faster assessments! Better prediction of which patient is more likely to “crash”! Reduced admin time with the use of AI Scribes! Etc.

These are all valid uses for AI technology. I use an AI scribe myself (following the principle of “trust but verify”in signing off on the notes). I access some evidence based AI software to help me with challenging cases. I always have the final word on what to do next of course, but I would be lying if I said that the tools didn’t help me look after my patients.

However, in a health care system as byzantine as the one in Ontario, there is one area where AI can help almost immediately that is not talked about nearly enough. Given the topic, I get why the many government health care planners/bureaucrats/managers don’t mention this. I’m talking of course, about reducing the number of bureaucrats in health care in Ontario.

I’ve talked about Ontario’s health care system being over bureaucratized many times in the past. But there’s never been a better opportunity to meaningfully cut the bloat. It would be impossible for me to search the entire Ontario government data base to find out how many bureaucrats we have. So………I used an AI search on ChatGPT and Claude AI to review how many managers/bureaucrats we have across all government funded health care agencies in Ontario. (I will put the prompt at the end of the blog for those interested).

Both searches suggested the total size of the health care workforce in Ontario was about 500,000 people. Of that, astounding 90,000-130,000 were non-clinical employees (mostly administrative/support staff). The actual management/bureaucratic layer varied between 25,000-45,000. A precise number was difficult to define, because, in the words of ChatGPT:

“……Ontario’s healthcare system is fragmented across hundreds of entities with inconsistent titles and reporting structures.”

However, given all of that, I think Claude’s estimate of having 85,000 admin/management personnel across all Ontario Health care agencies is defensible. Heck, it’s lower than ChatGPTs 90,000 – 130,000. Claude AI further broke this down and suggested 52,000 of these were in Ontario’s 154 hospitals.

Can AI replace some of these jobs? Replace is probably not the right phrase. There can certainly be a consolidation of the actual tasks required from different jobs, and AI can do those tasks much more efficiently and accurately.

For example, AI can, as of today, help with information movement, repetitive analysis, scheduling, policy retrieval, document generation, compliance monitoring, coordination, coding, and referrals to name but a few examples. All of these tasks are currently being performed by bureaucrats, and it’s virtually certain that there is tremendous duplication in the work being done. There is plenty of software than can do these tasks right now (LeanTaas, Qventus, Nuance DAX to name a few). Yes they are mostly American, but surely can be modified to meet Canadian needs.

The cost savings from reducing the number of bureaucrats can be significant immediately, and frankly enormous as AI continues to evolve over the next five years.

For a case study, let’s look at the University Health Network (I’m not picking on them for any other reason then they are huge!). They have approximately 24,500 employees of which an estimated 4,200 are Admin/management of some sort. Many of these positions are people on Ontario’s Sunshine List (i.e. they make over $100,000 a year). Reducing the number of these positions by 10% should be easily do-able if you have the right AI software.

Then the hospital would save the money right? Especially since Ontario’s hospitals are facing massive deficits? I would say no to that. I would instead say if UHN could cut their admin staff by 420 (which should easily be done), then maybe they could hire 210 clinical staff in return (nurses, physio, rehab, RT, Xray techs etc). Instead they just fired nurses. They would still have 210 fewer positions (so some money saved) but they would have 210 more people who would actually, you know – look at a patient. People who could provide compassionate, front line care and assessments to patients and be an invaluable part of the health care team.

Looking forward five years as AI software continues to evolve, I genuinely believe UHN should set its goal for reducing Admin/Management staff by half (at a minimum). This would allow them hire over a thousand (if not more) nurses to provide that front line care that is so essential to patients well being.

From a system wide perspective, the numbers would be even more dramatic. Currently, Ontario has 38% less inpatient staffing than the Canadian average. In order to just meet the average, about 34,000 more nurses need to be hired. The money for that has to come from somewhere, and I can think of no better place than reducing the admin staffing to find those funds.

I get why the bureaucrats have not talked about these uses for AI. Bureaucracy by its very nature is self perpetuating. But we are facing a serious fiscal calamity in health care with our aging population. While it’s nice to have tools that can help physicians like myself make better diagnoses and provide safer care, the blunt reality is we desperately need more front line staff. No matter how good the tool, it will never be a substitute for the compassion or a real human being providing care. The emotional wellness we experience from having real people look after us at the bedside cannot be understated. We need to adopt bureaucracy replacing AI tools now, and put the money saved in front of patients.

For those interested, this is the AI Prompt I used to get this data: “Review the number of bureaucrats/managers in the health care system in Ontario, Canada. Include ALL health care agencies that are government funded like hospitals, Ontario Health at Home, hospitals, community health centres and more – all government funded health care agencies. Get an approximate number of bureaucrats. Then show where AI can result in cuts to management/bureaucrat jobs right now, and in five years. Use the University Health Network in Toronto Canada as an example to show how many bureaucrat/management jobs could be trimmed, allowing them to funnel resources to hiring front line clinical personnel like nurses.”

Auditor General’s Report on AI Highlights Failure of Ontario’s Health IT Bureaucrats

There’s currently a lot of talk about the recent report from Ontario’s Auditor General on AI Scribes. The headlines seem mostly to be dealing with the fact that she found numerous AI Scribe generated reports had errors. The errors happened for various reasons, including AI hallucinations, transcription errors, incorrect entry of medications and so on.

Ontario’s current Auditor General, Shelley Spence

However, to my mind, that’s not the real story.

I feel somewhat conflicted in saying this next part, mostly because I think I generally have a reputation for being an advocate for physicians, their views and their well being. However, the blunt reality is that we are all required to check any report that’s generated by an AI scribe before we sign off on them. Physicians, being human, will make mistakes. For example, this past weekend, I got a message from a colleague of mine, pointing out an error that had been made in an AI-generated note on a patient I saw. That was my fault for not double checking. I think to try and blame some software for those kind of mistakes would be inappropriate.

No, the real story is the continued ineptitude of the healthcare bureaucrats at the Ministry of Health who are in charge of health care IT systems today. If one does a deep dive into the Auditor General’s report, there are many, many legitimate question she has, all of which the hard-working taxpayers of this province deserve an answer to.

In particular she found gaps in how these AI systems were evaluated by Supply Ontario, Ontario Health, and to a certain extent OntarioMD. Yes there were three agencies all involved, triplicating the amount of work necessary and adding to the confusion.

Heck the issues began right from the initial procurement stage. The weighting given to different criteria revealed a fundamental misalignment of priorities. The accuracy of medical notes generated by AI scribes accounted for only four per cent of points awarded to potential vendors, while domestic presence in Ontario was weighted the highest at 30 per cent. Data privacy/legal controls were weighted at 23 per cent and system security controls at 11 per cent. 

Think about that for a minute. You could have software from a poorly run company, that was completely inaccurate in its transcription and system security, yet still have it approved if it happened to be Ontario based. Yet a company with the best transcription and system security would lose, if it was from out of province. Even Spence was shocked by this, stating, “In my mind, that doesn’t make sense….when we’re dealing with personal information and we’re dealing with artificial intelligence, I think security is of the utmost importance.”

Additionally, the evaluations didn’t actually watch vendors operate the software in real time! There were no live test. Vendors were apparently given recordings and ran the system offline learning. Spence said, “this allowed vendors to potentially overstate their compliance with security and privacy requirements.”

Well, duh!

Worse, 11 of the approved vendors for AI software didn’t actually meet the mandatory submission requirements. They got approved anyway. Five didn’t even submit risk assessments and privacy impact assessments as part of their bid process. They got approved anyway.

This kind of amateurish, ineffectual assessment is supposed to help increase confidence in healthcare IT?

Most damningly, it appears from the auditor general’s report that there is a broad absence of strategic governance. The auditor general benchmarked the AI strategy against Canadian and international public sector organizations and found that there were no specific actionable items, no clear plan to prioritize AI use across ministry areas, and did not identify any prohibited AI practices or areas where technology posed an unacceptable risk.

Essentially, this report paints a picture of Ontario Health/Supply Ontario/Ontario MD approving AI systems through a process that underweighted accuracy, did not require live demonstrations, accepted incomplete documentation and failed to assess bias risk. All while having no clear plan to rectify these gaps going forward.

The thing is, this kind of insanity has been permeating the politics of IT health systems for decades. I’ve written about the bloated and inefficient bureaucracy for years now. The lack of ability to get a truly integrated health care system speaks to a lack of vision and focus in the bureaucracy. It’s incredibly discouraging that it continues unabated after all these years. It seems that no one has the knowledge, wisdom, ability to fire the incompetent bureaucrats, streamline the process by getting rid of multiple agencies, and apply an overarching vision for health care IT.

And yet, instead of fixing the bureaucratic mess first, streamlining health IT infrastructure, and developing on overarching health IT vision, Ontario is instead now going ahead and launching a Provincial initiative to create a province wide primary care medical record system. The people in charge of choosing the software for this? The same bunch who botched the AI scribe issue.

I can’t wait to read the Auditor General’s report on that one in, say 2029.

Local Medical Schools Will Help Address Doctor Shortages

Old Country Doctors Note: I was a teacher with the Rural Ontario Medical Program for three decades. It was founded by Dr. Peter Wells, and based on the principle that putting trainee doctors in smaller communities will enhance the chance of them working there. It’s been wildly successful. On that same note, Dr. Butt feels that putting a Medical School in Barrie will help increase recruitment to smaller centres, and I think he’s right. His Letter to the Editor appeared in the local press, and he’s given me permission to reproduce as a guest blog here.

Dr. Atif Butt (pictured inset) guest blogs for me today. He’s one of these ultra smart characters who not only has and MBA (McMaster 2003) but also and MD (McMaster, 2011) and a CCFP (EM). He’s retired from the Military (Major) and works in ER in Alliston, and Urgent Care in Barrie and does sedations in an endoscopy clinic in Innisfil. Apparently he’s quite the dancer too.

Barrie has been home to my family and I since the fall of 2013. It is a wonderful area to raise a family and offers everything that a mid-size community requires but also the peace and quiet lacking in larger urban areas. It is also the gateway to cottage country.

I am surprised at how fast the city is expanding as demonstrated by the numerous condo buildings and townhouses being erected, especially on the Barrie/Innisfil border. A growing city will result in many consequences, some positive (e.g., more cultural diversity, more revenues for local businesses, etc.) but also some negatives (e.g., traffic headaches). It will also mean a growing population that will place greater demand on local health-care resources.

I have been practising medicine in several health-care organizations in the Barrie/Innisifil/Alliston area since 2013. I am impressed by how much demand is placed on local health-care organizations, yet they continue to persevere through. The success is fundamentally thanks to the heroic work of the health-care workers including physicians, nurses, and other allied health-care workers who band together to serve patients, often sacrificing their own nights and weekends. But we all have our limits and simply cannot do more.

Currently, almost six million Canadians (out of which over two million are in Ontario) do not have a family doctor. More specifically, it is estimated that over 55,000 people in the Simcoe County area do not have a family doctor. Almost every day, there are news reports of lengthy wait times in the ERs, which are frankly longer than plane flights from Canada to Pakistan. Attempts have been made to address such shortfalls by the use of nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and pharmacists and I am grateful for the work they provide. Nonetheless, physicians cannot simply be replaced by non-physicians and more are needed. That is why I am proposing that either a new medical school be created in the Barrie/Innisfil area or, preferably and more cost-effectively, seats from an existing Ontario medical school be expanded to our area.

I am encouraged to see that some efforts have already been made to expand medical school seats in Ontario. Examples include the 2025 opening of the Toronto Metropolitan University medical school and the upcoming opening of the York University medical school in 2028. I appreciate that such endeavours can be costly. For example, the federal government just announced almost $2 million to expand medical seats and services for the Northern Ontario School of Medicine. While this will greatly support the north, sadly, Barrie and the surrounding area seemed to be left out.

Despite investments in new medical schools, the demand far exceeds supply. For example, the newest medical school at TMU had 6,416 applications in 2025 but total projected class size in 2026 is 94. That means 1.5 per cent of applicants got accepted. Most medical schools in Ontario roughly seem to have on average about a three- to five-per-cent acceptance rate. While adding medical seats in Barrie/Innisfil maybe a drop in the bucket, it will hopefully lead to an ongoing pool of locally trained physicians that will want to practice in our area. Return of service contracts, where physicians have to practice locally for four to five years after training, can be a condition for acceptance into a medical school here.

Canada in general and Ontario in particular have a lot of talent, yet we are losing out. On a regular basis, I come across undergraduate students who have high GPAs/marks, extraordinary extra-curriculars and experiences, scored high on their MCATs, have applied multiple times to Canadian medical schools, yet are unable to even get an interview (let alone acceptance) into a Canadian medical school. Their families are often spending hundreds of thousands of dollars per year (in U.S. dollars) to send them abroad to the U.S./Caribbean/Europe so that they can pursue their dreams of becoming a physician. Even after they graduate from an international medical school, there is no guarantee that they will obtain a residency spot in Canada since preference is given to Canadian-trained grads. Hence, they may be forced to practise elsewhere like the U.S. Would it not be better if we could retain and train such talent who invested their tuition locally and then stayed to practise?

Intuitively, when medical trainees train in a particular geographical area, many will choose to stay and practise in that area. While in Barrie we have the Family Medicine Teaching Unit for training family medicine residents and the expansion of some ER residency spots at Royal Victoria Regional Health Centre, I believe that the next logical step is to have medical school seats in the Barrie/Innisifil area. This will allow us to recruit and retain future physicians in the local area.

I find that the simplest goals are often the most achievable and realistic. A brand-new expensive medical school with new infrastructure may be a costly pill for any government to swallow. Thus, simply expanding, say, a dozen seats, from an existing Ontario medical school to our area using existing hospitals or other health-care facilities may be much more palatable. Students will be able to virtually watch online any didactic lectures that are delivered at main campuses to obtain theoretical knowledge. Any practical knowledge and skills can be completed with assigned preceptors and through core rotations (e.g., ER, family medicine, obstetrics, general surgery) and elective (e.g., plastics, radiology, etc.) at several of the amazing and existing local hospitals and health-care facilities from Orillia to Barrie and Alliston to Newmarket. After doing three to four years of medical school and assuming they do a two-year family medicine residency in the Barrie/Innisfil area, I suspect many will choose to stay and practise in our wonderful area.

I have already reached out to several governing officials including the Office of the Premier of Ontario and the provincial minister of health to share my proposal. While their offices have provided some appreciative yet general responses of their broader investments, I truly believe that it is through greater and ongoing public support and engagement that expansion of a medical school in Barrie can be achieved. In other words, while I as a physician can write a prescription and explain the risks and benefits of the medicine, it is up to the patient to actually take the prescription. In this case, my prescription is the expansion of medical school seats to the Barrie/Innisfil area and I am asking you, the patient, to engage the government in filling this prescription.