Category: Vaccines

Get Your Flu Shot…. AND Your Covid Booster.

I’ve written about the importance of getting flu shots before. I continue to be grateful for people who are being pro-active about their health, even if the phone calls to my office asking when the flu shot is coming get to be bit much.

This year there seem to be two main themes in all the phone calls we are getting.

1) What is the ideal interval between getting the flu shot and a Covid booster?

This one is relatively straightforward. The human immune system is designed to handle multiple threats at a time. We can handle multiple vaccines at a time. When infants get immunized at 2,4 and 6 months, they get Tetanus/Diptheria/Pertussis and Polio (and in many jurisdictions Rotavirus and Haemophilus) vaccines all at the same time. We’ve been doing this for decades and it’s served us well.

So getting the flu shot and Covid vaccine on the same day is not an issue. The Centre for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States has clearly indicated this. What is important however, is that the flu shot really needs to be timed properly for peak effectiveness. Again, I’ve written about this before, but the short version is you should get a flu shot in November, so that the vaccine will have peak efficiency during flu season.

If you happen to be due for your Covid booster in November, that’s ok, get both shots at the same time. On the other hand, if you are not due for your Covid booster for a couple of months, please do not put off getting your flu shot.

2) Do I really need a flu shot?

I am hearing this question more often and it saddens me. It is true that the past two flu seasons were relatively mild. The measures we implemented to prevent us from getting Covid (masks, social distancing, etc) also prevented us from getting ALL respiratory illnesses, including the flu. Perhaps people have forgotten how bad the flu can be.

If you have a cough, or the sniffles or a low grade fever, that’s just a cold. It’s not “a touch of the flu”. If you have the flu, in addition to those three symptoms, you will feel like you got run over by a truck twice. The second time because the flu virus will have wanted to to ensure you really really felt it’s presence. Muscles you never knew existed will hurt for days, and it will be an experience you won’t soon forget.

If you are a senior, or someone who for whatever reason has a weakened immune system, the flu will make you more prone to getting a serious complication like pneumonia. You will wind up in hospital, or worse.

With many of the Covid restrictions easing it is reasonable to anticipate that this coming flu season will be worse than the last two years. Australia, which also lifted many Covid restrictions, just came off their worst flu season in five years and their pattern is often repeated in North America. So yeah, anticipate a much worse flu season this year.

Additionally, the number of boosters we need to protect ourselves from Covid seems to increase every few months, and a certain amount of “vaccine fatigue” does set in. I get it, I really do. It can be tiresome to be told you need yet another shot. But you do.

One issue that I have not been asked about, but we should talk about, is what happens if you do get the flu. Hopefully you will “just” be sick for a few days, and then get over it. But unfortunately, we have to consider the possibility that you may get a severe case, and have complications that require you to go to hospital.

I recognize some will accuse me of fear mongering, but in that scenario, you really need to consider the possibility that the care you need (and paid tax dollars for) may not be available. This past summer, media was littered with headlines about this hospitals closing beds, having trouble finding staff and even shutting down ERs. Heck the Chelsey hospital ER is being shut down for months! Do you really think that trend is going to magically end when flu season comes around?

The sad reality is that if you do get a complication from the flu, you may wind up with no one to provide you with the care you need going forward.

What’s the best thing you can do?

First, just about everybody over the age of six months should get a flu shot to protect themselves and their loved ones. The number of people who truly, truly have adverse reactions to the flu shot is very low. Talk to your doctor if you have concerns.

Second, for people who are in nursing homes and retirement homes, it probably is worthwhile getting the shot the last week of October. These patients are truly truly high risk, and it may take them longer to develop immunity.

Third, for most other people in the community, wait till November to get your flu shot. This will ensure that we all have a reasonable amount of immunity until the end of the flu season.

Yours truly getting a gentle flu shot from a gentle nurse…

Finally, get the new bivalent Covid booster as soon as you are eligible (for most people it’s three months after their last booster or a Covid infection). Once again, the chance of a true reaction to the Covid Vaccine is exceedingly low. Much lower than your risk of complications from Covid.

Immunizations continue to represent one of our strongest tools to stay healthy. Outside of clean water/sanitation, they are arguably the most successful public health measure in the history of humanity. Let’s all do our part to stay healthy and protect those around us.

Disclaimer: The opinion above is not individualized medical advice. It’s meant for the population as a whole. If you have specific questions or concerns, speak to your doctor.

Advertisement

Covid is Not Over – and It Won’t EVER Be

As provinces across Canada begin to lift restrictions from the Covid pandemic, there is a plethora of opinions raging about this. Some physicians feel the restrictions are being lifted too slowly. Others feel that it is just right. In Ontario at least, the most outspoken group are the physicians who demand ongoing restrictions. They have taken to using #Covidisnotover on Twitter.

Obviously, when dealing with a once in a century pandemic that has truly decimated patients and health care workers alike, there are still going to be unknowns going forward. But personally speaking, I think we have to realize a couple of things. First, Covid is not over. Second, and most importantly, it never will be.

Is the flu over? Is HIV over? Heck, are measles and RSV over? The answer to all of those is no. The viruses are still around, they are still infecting people and are mutating all the time (that’s why we need an annual flu shot).

There are always a certain amount of these viruses in the ecosystem. Why would Covid be any different? We are not going to completely eradicate Covid.

Given this – the question becomes, what do we do as a society?

One option, and certainly one that is promoted by the #covidisnotover types, is to continue ongoing restrictions, for much longer. Be it mask mandates, enforced vaccine passports, or continued limits on indoor capacity, the message from them seems to be to keep imposing restrictions for……well, I couldn’t really find consensus on an end date.

The most common argument for continuing restrictions (in Ontario anyway) is the continued positive case load. There are more positive cases than ever before, so why should we stop restrictions now?

Well, the short version is that while it is absolutely true that our case load is higher now than in, say October of 2020, many other factors have changed. In October of 2020, there were no vaccines. There were no oral medications that could help treat those who were infected. Guidance on the fact that Covid is airborne was still (shockingly) lacking.

In comparison, in March of 2022 over 90% of the adult population of Ontario has two covid vaccines, and are well on the way to their third. Evidence is clear that the vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing serious complications of Covid. There is now a strong emphasis on good ventilation as a way to reduce the Covid burden. The government is providing funding for Hepa filters in schools and child care settings. A protocol for rolling out the new oral medications exists, and, like all things, supply of the medications will increase with time.

So to compare just case numbers from October 2020 to March 2022, quite frankly is just comparing apples to oranges. We need to take all these other factors into account.

The other common argument is essentially “Look at Denmark!“. Pro restriction types point to the fact that Denmark lifted all Covid restrictions on February 1st, 2022, and now seems to have an exploding number of cases and mortality. Graphs like the one below are designed to shock people into thinking there is a catastrophe in Denmark:

But the graph doesn’t tell the whole story, and in fact a much more nuanced approach requiring a deep dive into the data is needed. I was going to try but I can’t do a better job of it than Michael Petersen did in his twitter thread:

The short version is that because so many people have Covid now, we need to do a better job of determining who died because of a covid infection (usually a covid pneumonia) vs who died of other causes, but incidentally happened to have Covid at the same time. A better graph showing the Denmark situation (taken from Petersen’s thread) taking this into account is here:

Before people start jumping all over this, let me also point out that I am acutely aware that there is a significant spike in deaths in Denmark recently, even if not specifically caused by Covid. We clearly need to do a deeper dive into why there were excess deaths. But part of that deeper dive must include whether deaths were caused by the restrictions themselves (delayed care, depression and mental health issues leading to people just giving up etc). In essence, is the cure (restrictions) causing more harm than the disease (Covid)?

Look, lockdowns and restrictions were initially necessary. There is good evidence that they helped to blunt the course of Covid. But there is also evidence that they have harmed society as well. The economic impacts with record government deficits that will tax our great grand children are well known. However, there are also other health care impacts.

In Ontario, we have a back log of 20 million health care services, leaving many patients feeling forgotten. There are consequences to delayed care and I have seen that in my own practice, and expect to see much more in the coming year. Yes, those consequences sadly will include deaths.

All of this is before we even consider the collateral damage done to mental health especially in our pediatric population. As Dr. Jetelina points out in her excellent sub stack, there has been a world wide increase in paediatric mental health issues. A 24-31% rise in children presenting with mental health issues and a shocking 69-133% (depending on age group) increase in children presenting with suicidal thoughts to Emergency Departments.

What does all this mean?

My personal feeling is that while we cannot ignore Covid (it’s a bad disease) and we need to continue to encourage vaccinations (they work), we need to start looking at the health care system as a whole. Should we mask in high risk areas? Sure. But should we continue to isolate people socially and restrict interactions in a lower risk population, when that clearly causes other harms? I would argue no.

We have been making decisions for a long time based on Covid numbers alone. There are other illnesses and disease that are out there, many of which have been worsened by the restrictions Covid has forced on us. We need to start basing our health care decisions on what’s best for overall population health, not just Covid.

Governments Should Listen to the Experts and Ease Covid Restrictions

It’s time.

For the past two years, the majority of Canadians have done their part to help combat the greatest health care crisis in a generation. We’ve dutifully worn masks, social distanced, gotten vaccinated and done our part to help protect others.

When the pandemic began (has it been two years already?), very little was known about Covid19 and still less was known about how to treat it. Public Health leaders did their best to provide guidance in an ever changing environment. They got some stuff wrong (remember how we were all initially told not to wear masks ?). But they got more stuff right (the lockdowns did help slow the spread of Covid19).

We all paid a terrible price to fight Covid. Job losses. Economic uncertainty. Decreased social interaction. Mental health impacts on ourselves and most troublingly our children. Delayed medical procedures. The list could go on forever.

Through it all however, was the hope that at some point the pandemic would either end, or change to a more manageable form and we could start to live more normal, if not completely normal lives. I submit that time has come.

In Ontario, we have almost 90% of residents over age 12 who have had two covid vaccines. This would be the number we were told was necessary to achieve herd immunity. I understand that most people need three shots. But the reality is that with Covid being a seasonal virus that seems to mutate regularly, we may need annual booster shots. Surely we won’t keep restrictions forever because we will likely need vaccines forever.

Additionally, we now have new promising medications to treat covid infections. An oral medication that is 90% effective in reducing hospitalizations has been approved by Health Canada, and early distribution to those at highest risk has already begun. I appreciate we need to ramp up production of the medication, and have more of it in stock, but at least we have viable treatment options.

It’s not just this old country doctor saying we need to ease restrictions more. Last week, Ontario’s Chief Medical officer of health himself stated that we needed to re-assess the proof of vaccination process. Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam admitted that we needed to get back to some normalcy. Despite the fact that British Columbia had some of the highest Covid related death tolls with the Omicron wave, even their provincial Health Officer, the excellent Dr. Bonnie Henry, signalled that restrictions would be easing.

I would note that throughout the pandemic, there have been calls for all of us to “listen to the experts” and follow their guidance. Well, they are all signalling that it’s time to change the approach and that it’s time to start lifting restrictions.

To be clear, the restrictions should not be lifted all at once. There should be a stepwise approach to lifting them, but that stepwise approach should be relatively rapid now.

The first thing to go should be the Vaccine Passports/Mandates. Before I go further let me be abundantly clear – I strongly urge everyone to get vaccinated (unless you are one of the one in 100,000 people who has a legitimate medical reason not to). The covid vaccines were incredibly effective against the alpha to delta variants of Covid. They are “just” really good against Omicron. However, with even Dr. Moore admitting that the vaccines will not stop transmission of the Omicron variant (but will drastically reduce your risk of getting critically ill from it) the passports/mandates make no sense anymore.

As an aside, my loyal readers (both of them) will remember that I wrote on July 30, 2021 that vaccine mandates were a bad idea and would “embolden hesitancy and create more fear and mistrust.” Look what’s happened. We now have our nation’s capital essentially under siege from a convoy of people who have been further emboldened by these coercive measures. Think there is enough trust there to come to an amicable solution? Particularly in light of Dr. Moore’s comments that transmissibility will not change if vaccinated?

This is in no way meant to support whatever the Ottawa convoy/protest/blockade is calling itself right now. They have frankly lost the moral high ground by not calling out the fringe few among them who are anti-semites, racists and just plain loons. They need to leave Ottawa and go home.

None of that, however, changes the fact that since you can get Omicron from a vaccinated person as well as from an unvaccinated person – there is no point to a vaccine passport. Get rid of it now.

Once that’s done, the next step should be to ensure our health care system goes back to full regular work and then some. We are already severely backlogged, and there is a whole lot of overtime needed to catch up on the delayed medical procedures.

Next (and in short order) capacity needs to be increased at restaurants/arenas/other indoor gatherings. We need to allow many of the businesses who have suffered terribly to start getting back on their feet.

The last step should be to remove mask mandates. Covid is airborne, and as such, masks provide a significant amount of protection. It will likely be a bit longer yet before we can say that Covid 19 is endemic (always circulating in the community at a stable level without fluctuating) as opposed to pandemic (essentially prevalent at a higher level with significant impacts on the health care system). So mask rules should be the last to go.

But make no mistake, the harms of all the other restrictive measures, whether on significantly delayed health care procedures, or enormous effects on government budgets and the economy now clearly outweigh the effects of continued restrictions.

It’s time to start lifting.

For those of you interested in such things I briefly spoke about Covid19 on CTV News and the link is below where I did mention vaccine passports had to go.

Pharmacies Must Put Corporate Interests Aside to Give Flu Shots

October is just around the corner. Leaves will soon be turning magnificent colours. Pumpkin Spice treats will flow in abundance from many cafe’s. Plans to have a safe Halloween will be afoot. And – the inevitable cry of “when can I get my flu shot?” will be increasingly heard at many physicians offices.

Last year, there was a significant rise in the number of people who got a flu shot. While our flu season was mild last year (likely because of a combination of all the social distancing/mask measures and the higher vaccination rates) – there is concern this season may be more severe. In order to minimize the severity of this years flu season, we need to continue the trend of more people getting flu shots.

But last year was also the year that there was a lot of confusion around flu shots, and the year that the increasing commercialization of flu shots by the corporate head offices of pharmaceutical chains raised big concerns for me.

First, the timing of the flu shot is always going to be key. As I wrote last year, the best time for most of us to get flu shots is in November. The trend for the last few years (see picture below) is for flu season to begin sometime in December and taper off in March.

Thank you Ottawa Public Health for this excellent graph

BUT, the flu shot only starts to work two weeks after you get it, and its effectiveness starts to wear off after a couple of months. Timing is everything with the flu shot, and getting the shot in October is (for most of us) a bad choice. The shot will wear off before flu season is over.

Yet last year, my radio station/twitter feed/even Facebook page had numerous ads from Pharmacies advertising flu shot clinics in October (and buy your groceries at the same time!). This appeared to be driven by a desire to get a “customer” in the store soon rather than what was best from a health perspective (i.e. wait till November).

Additionally, there was all sorts of confusion around the high dose vs the standard dose flu shot last year. I wrote about this last year too. At the end of the day it does not matter which flu shot you get. Just get one! The effective difference between the high dose trivalent (three strain) flu shot and the regular dose three strain flu shot was 0.5%. This difference does not merit the hype around the high dose shot.

Furthermore, in Ontario we had a quadrivalent (four strain) regular strength flu shot. There was no study comparing the high dose three strain vs regular dose four strain shot that I could find. So really, there was no justification for the advertising from pharmacy ads that essentially said “high dose flu shots in stock, come quickly before we run out.”

This year, the choice of flu shots is going to be even more complicated. Have a look at a screen shot of an email I got from my local public health unit:

Six (!) different brands of flu shots covering a variety of strains (3 vs 4) and dosage strengths (high vs low). But again, to be clear, the difference between these are likely minimal. What’s far more important is that people actually get the shot (in November) rather than pick and choose and wait for one.

Yet if history repeats itself (and it seemingly always does), we can once again expect pharmaceutical chains advertising early in October that they have a “high dose” or “extra strength” or “added potency” or whatever shot, but you must book now! Hurry! Before they are all gone! And if you come real soon, you can even get 500 bonus points!

This level of consumer hucksterism has no place in health care. Health care decisions should be made based on evidence, appropriately done studies, and what’s in the best interests of the patient and society. They should not be made based on some marketing guru’s attempts to get people into a store (where conveniently they can get their milk and eggs too).

Most pharmacists I know are good and decent people who want to do what’s best for their patients. I actually applaud their willingness to give flu shots. The easier we can make it for everyone in society to get a flu shot, the better it is for all of us, and the less potential strain there will be on our health care system this winter.

But the corporate head offices that come up with these schemes (seriously, bonus points for get a flu shot??) need to think of what’s best for the health care needs of society first. That means NOT giving flu shots until November and NOT trying to promote one flu vaccine over another in an effort to create perceived demand and drive people to their stores.

Let’s see see if they act in the best interests of society, or in the best interests of their shareholders wallets this year.

Vaccine Certificates/Mandatory Immunizations are a Bad Idea

First things first, if you’ve read the title of this blog, and are hoping to find ammunition to promote a vaccine hesitant agenda, you won’t find it here. Go watch Fox News or Newsmax or any other QAnon affiliated vaccine disinformation service.

The COVID vaccines are safe and they are incredibly effective. Something like 99.5% of all patients in hospital ICUs with COVID are people who have not been fully immunized. Many of them beg to get immunized after getting sick, but by then it’s too late.

Frankly, I think an argument could be made that the mRNA COVID vaccines are the most effective vaccines science has ever developed. If you remember nothing else from this blog – remember this – I encourage you to all voluntarily get vaccinated for COVID, especially now that we seem to have adequate supplies.

Making vaccines mandatory/vaccine certificates however, introduce a whole new set of concerns that I don’t think have been well thought out.

The rationale for introducing Vaccine Passports/Certificates appears to be to protect society. By requiring documentation that you have been vaccinated prior to allowing you to go to a restaurant/travel in Canada/attend sporting events etc, the thinking is that you will prevent the spread of COVID.

The argument for making COVID vaccinations mandatory for health care workers is that patients should feel safe when accessing health care, and be assured they won’t get COVID19 from someone who is treating them. The point has also been made that health care workers are often required to show proof of immunity to things like Hepatitis B and Tuberculosis. So why not add COVID to the list? (Interestingly, those who espouse this view conveniently forget that health care workers are not required to immunize yearly for the flu, and the flu kills far more people every year than either TB or Hep B).

But.

One thing this pandemic has taught us, is that there is a small group of people out there who are extremely mistrustful of authority. They won’t trust doctors/public health officials/nurses etc. They prefer to do their own “research”. Their “research” is frankly guided by confirmation bias (looking only at information that supports your agenda, as opposed to looking at all the facts, whether supportive or not). These people then (sadly very successfully) use social media to spread their half truths (and in the case of noted health experts Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson – outright lies).

Professor Emeritus in Virology Donald J. Trump, extolling the virtues of drinking bleach to treat COVID infections, and PhD in Immunology Tucker Carlson eloquently expressing their arguments (sarcasm by writer fully intentional)

The damage caused by these people is in calculable. COVID appears to be resurgent in the United States and is being (rightfully) called a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Third world countries are struggling with another wave, and are desperately trying to keep their health systems afloat, while they get the needed vaccines. International travel remains in limbo, and the economic damage caused worsens by the day.

So why then are vaccine certificates or mandatory vaccinations for health care workers a bad idea?

Because no matter what I or other health officials think of the idea, the simple reality is that the vaccine hesitant crowd will spin this as co-ercion.

Celebrated Infectious Disease Specialist Marjorie Taylor Greene discusses the pros of Covid Vaccination (sarcasm fully intended by writer)

And that, in a nutshell, is why I oppose the idea of vaccine certificates, and mandatory vaccinations. We have the weight of evidence on our side that vaccines work. We have been able to debunk many of the stories about the COVID vaccines (remember when the Pfizer vaccine was going to cause an outbreak of Bell’s Palsy and we were all going to walk around with half droopy faces?). With each passing day seeing only unvaccinated people being admitted to hospital with severe COVID we keep building our case. We should be pro-actively promoting all of this in order to let the vaccine hesitant know that their concerns are unfounded.

One thing that has been badly done during this pandemic is the dissemination of information. In any crisis, the first thing to do, should be to have clear, consistent, factually accurate communication. This has been sorely lacking in the past 16 months with health authorities disagreeing with each other.

Yet now, we are again running the risk of doing the same thing. On the one hand, we’ve got experts (quite correctly) proclaiming the vaccines are the best way to prevent COVID.

And now health authorities are turning around and essentially saying ” yah, but we’re going to make you have a special passport to go anywhere so you are protected.”

What exactly do you think those that are already suspicious of authority are going to think? They are simply going to double down on their belief that we have to be “forced” into getting a vaccine, because it’s really not as good as we say it is. We’re going to lose any chance of trying to build bridges with the vaccine hesitant crowd, and win them over with the force of reason and facts (which is overwhelmingly on the side of those who believe in vaccinations).

The whole point of taking the incredibly effective COVID vaccines, is so you can go places and NOT WORRY if the other person is unvaccinated. Even if you are exposed to COVID, it will be the unfortunate misguided unvaccinated individual who will get sick, not you.

Building trust with the vaccine hesitant crowd is hard. It takes time, effort, repetition of facts and a calm approach. But if we go down the road of creating the impression of co-ercion, we’re going to embolden hesitancy and create more fear and mistrust. Vaccine hesitancy will only rise as a result and mistrust of health authorities will increase. Who knows what the long term implications of that are? I worry those implications will last beyond the pandemic, and will cause ongoing problems for health care in the future.

We have facts/reason/data to support the COVID vaccines. Let’s keep promoting that, and not give those who mistrust health authorities, more ammunition.

Let’s Discuss the Astra Zeneca Covid Vaccine

The following blog is written by Dr. Anne-Marie Zajdlik, MD, CCFP. She is the founder of ARCH Clinic Guelph and Waterloo, Founding Director of Bracelet of Hope and Founder of the Hope Health Centre

Let’s discuss the AstraZeneca vaccine.  I am just going to give you some facts.  You can make your own decision about the AstraZeneca vaccine.

On March 29th,  Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommended provinces pause on the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford COVID-19 vaccine on those under the age of 55 because of safety concerns. NACI’s priority is vaccine safety.   Their decision came after the European Medicines Agency ( EMA), Europe’s Health Canada equivalent, investigated 25 cases of very rare blood clots out of about 20 million AstraZeneca vaccines given.  On March 18th the EMA concluded that the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine far outweigh this risk if there is a true increased risk of the blood clots.

Most of these rare blood clots occurred in women under the age of 55 ( 18 out of 25).  Thus, NACI’s recommendation to halt the use of the AZ vaccine in this age group pending further review of the ongoing real-time research.

So, 25 cases out of 20 million vaccinations is a risk of about 1 in a million.  That means that if there actually is an increased risk, the risk is 1 case of the rare blood clots out of 1 million vaccines given. One in a million.

Let’s shed some light on that: The risk of blood clots developing among new users of oral contraceptive pills ( birth control pills) is 8 out of 10,000. Thirty four out of 10,000 women who use  hormone replacement therapy ( HRT ) will develop a blood clot at some point.  And, the risk of developing a blood clot in women in general  is is 16/100,000. 

The Canadian maternal mortality rate ( the rate of death in women during childbirth) is 8.3 deaths per 100,000.

No medical intervention is without risks.  The question is, should we take that risk?  That is what NACI will try to figure out in the coming weeks. Let’s balance that risk of 1 in a million with the risk of COVID-19. 

A new briefing note from a panel of science experts advising the Ontario government on COVID-19 shows a province at a tipping point. Variants that are more deadly are circulating widely, new daily infections have reached the same number at the height of the second wave, and the number of people hospitalized is now more than 20 per cent higher than at the start of the last province-wide lockdown.

These variants are more dangerous and more easily transmitted.  They cause 2.5 to 4.1 deaths per 1000 detected cases.  That’s deaths.  The risk of serious complications with the variants is double the risk of the original COVID-19 virus:  20 out of 100.

Here’s a quote that scared me.  “Right now in Ontario, the pandemic is completely out of control,” Dr. Peter Juni, the scientific director and a professor of medicine and epidemiology with the University of Toronto and member of Ontario’s COVID-19 science advisory table.

The AstraZeneca vaccine is over 70% effective up front and almost 100% effective at preventing deaths and hospitalizations from COVID-19. Breathe.  It is not time to throw out the baby with the bath water.  No blood clots have occurred in people over 60.  We should continue using the AstraZeneca vaccine in this age group which is most at risk of serious complications and death from COVID-19.

The REAL Reason NACI Recommends 16 Weeks Between COVID Vaccine Shots

Recently, the National Advisory Council on Immunizations, or NACI, announced that it was reasonable to wait up to sixteen weeks between your Covid-19 vaccination shots. This applies to the three, Health Canada approved, two shot vaccines (Pfizer/BioNtech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca). Canada is the only country in the world to stretch out the interval between shots to four months. The manufacturers of the vaccines continue to suggest three weeks between shots.

This decision was not without controversy. No less than Canada’s chief scientist, Dr. Mona Nemer, called this a “population level experiment.” Multiple other physicians have tweeted concerns about this. Pfizer/BioNtech won’t sign off on this, and I’m not aware of Moderna or AstraZeneca agreeing to this extended interval either.

But NACI is made up of some really smart people as well. They’ve been providing independent and unbiased advice on all vaccines to the Federal government since 1964. No doubt NACI looked at data from countries around the world, and found that in countries like the UK and Israel, the incidence of COVID19 fell dramatically in the general population after just one dose. This was particularly of note in the UK because they had delayed their second shot (to 12 weeks) despite being called reckless by other countries.

So, we have one group of extremely bright and knowledgeable people saying delaying the second shot up to 16 weeks is ok. Another group of extremely bright and knowledgeable people is saying that this is a problem.

Look, I’m just an old country doctor, not a virologist or immunologist or population health specialist or so on. There is no way I could get into an educated discussion about whether going to 16 weeks between shots will be safe and effective or not because my brain is just not big enough to understand all the minutiae around rising and falling antibody levels.

But I’ve been around long enough to have read multiple statements and press releases from bodies like this, and I’ve learned to read between the lines. Here’s what’s really going on, that nobody (including the press) is talking about.

It’s the fourth bullet point in the summary section of NACI’s recommendation:

  • NACI recommends that in the context of limited COVID-19 vaccine supply, jurisdictions should maximize the number of individuals benefiting from the first dose of vaccine by extending the interval for the second dose of vaccine up to four months

“The context of limited COVID-19 vaccine supply.” See the reason that NACI felt obliged to have Canada be the only country in the world that extends the interval to 16 weeks, is because Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government have botched the procurement of COVID-19 vaccines. If we had more COVID-19 vaccines, NACI would never have been put in a position of having to explore a population level experiment.

Trudeau has been saying for weeks now that more vaccines are coming. Heck back on Feb 19 he promised a “big lift” of vaccines. But despite all the hyperbole, the simple fact remains that as I write this blog, Canada is 62nd in the world when it comes to delivering COVID-19 vaccines to our population. We’re behind such illustrious world powers like Dominica, Serbia, Estonia and Aguilla to name a few. For a G-7 country, that’s just embarrassing.

Table courtesy of Our World in Data. Shows Canada has immunized only 8 people per 100 as of March 14, 2021)

This source for all the above information is Our World in Data and you can link to the relevant page here. It is updated daily so my comments are based on what I saw as of March 14, 2021.

Is it any wonder that there’s actually a #TrudeauVaccineFailure on Twitter?

Look, I, like you, am acutely aware that the Trudeau government has signed lots of deals with vaccine manufactures to get Canadians the vaccine. But it’s also extremely telling that Trudeau has refused to release the vaccine contracts. These contracts undoubtedly have a delivery schedule in them, so the fact Trudeau won’t let us see them really incriminates his government. It does nothing to dispel the concerns around the competence of how his government handled the vaccine procurement process.

Th main role of a national government is to protect the welfare of its citizens. If Canada had been in the top ten in vaccines procured per capita (surely not unreasonable for a G-7 country), NACI would not have needed to explore a 16 week vaccination interval. And we likely wouldn’t be looking at a third wave in Ontario.

By not procuring COVID-19 vaccines in a more timely manner, the Trudeau Liberals have failed the people of Canada.

Which COVID Vaccine Should You Get?

Me getting the first dose of my Covid-19 Vaccine.

Canada now has 4 different vaccines to help us fight COVID-19, BioNtech/Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Johnson and Johnson. While that’s a (very) good thing, this has led to some inevitable questions about which vaccine is “better” and whether people should wait for one or the other. An email from a friend who questioned the AstraZeneca vaccine inspired me to write this.

First, to re-iterate once again, while is true that all of these vaccines were developed at a rapid pace, the reality is that they all have been thoroughly tested. The shortcuts that were made were made in the bureaucracy, not the human trials. You can read my thoughts on that here, or see my colleague Dr. Greg Rose explain it better here.

There will likely never, ever be a vaccine (of any kind) that is 100 per cent safe (ever), but overall these vaccines are extremely safe for the general population.

The difficult part in sorting out information about the COVID vaccines is two fold. First, there is a whole lot of information that comes out, almost on a daily basis. It’s hard for not just physicians to keep track of it all, but also members of the general public. Second, some of the information that is released is extremely premature, without a full analysis being done. First impressions being lasting impressions, this often times creates an incorrect perception of a vaccine, that is hard to refute later on.

For example, the BioNtech/Pfizer vaccine was initially plagued by concerns that it caused Bell’s palsy (based on a report that 4 people got it after taking the vaccine) and that death was a side effect (based on report in Norway of 33 people over the age of 80 dying after taking the vaccine). It wasn’t until later that a through review showed that the Bell’s palsy issue was actually the same or less than the background rate. Essentially, you would expect about 12 people a year in the vaccine group to get Bell’s palsy anyway, regardless of whether they got the vaccine or not, so the fact that 4 got it didn’t mean it was linked to the vaccine, just that they were going to get it anyway. As for the 33 deaths, turns out that was in keeping with Norways normal death rate for their population of over 80 year olds, so again, not related to the vaccine.

Think of it this way. The most common time to get a heart attack is actually three hours after you wake up. Does this mean eating breakfast causes a heart attack? Of course not. Just because those two things happen close together, doesn’t mean that one caused the other. In statistics this is referred to as “correlation does not imply causation.” Sadly, there is rather a lot of correlation that is brought up about all of these vaccines, and the assumption is made that they are causing problems.

It was initially claimed the Moderna vaccine had more side effects than the BioNtech/Pfizer one. But it was only after studying it more that people realized that these aren’t really side effects, but proof that the vaccine is working. Your second shot of the Moderna vaccine made your immune system mount a response to what it viewed as a foreign body. Thus the muscle aches, fever and headaches that went along with it.

Now most recently there is some sub-optimal information circulating around the AstraZeneca vaccine. First, there was concern that they would not work against certain strains of COVID19, particularly the South African strain. Second is concern about blood clots.

The South African strain issue was particularly overblown. “Only 10% effective” screamed out some headlines. South Africa even stopped using this vaccine as a result. The full story is somewhat different.

Turns out the study that suggested AstraZeneca wouldn’t work against the SouthAfrica variant was very small (2,000 people), and not well done. Further more, what really matters, is preventing deaths, hospitalizations and severe disease and AstraZeneca works for this with the South African strain. Perhaps you may get a mild case of COVID19 (cough, fever, mild muscle aches for a couple of days). But the point of the vaccine is prevention of severe cases and deaths.

Similarly, the blood clot issue again appears to be one of correlation, not causation. The background rate of blood clots in the population would explain the ones found in Europe. Health Canada and Thrombosis Canada is not worried, and you shouldn’t worry either.

So back to the question at hand. Which vaccine should you get? My personal feeling is the J&J one would be the best simply because, logistically it’s much easier. Get one shot and it’s done. The problem with that one is that we have an effete Prime Minister who’s totally botched vaccine procurement for Canadians. There’s a reason #trudeauvaccinefailure is on twitter. Last I checked we are 61st in the world for procurement of vaccines (and for a G-7 country, that’s just embarrassing).

While happily announcing the approval of the J&J vaccine, Trudeau and the Liberals neglected to emphasize the fine print. Namely that the vaccine would likely not start to arrive until the end of April or early May, and that would only be in small amounts. The bulk of this vaccine won’t be in Canada until September.

Of course, right on queue, a few days after boasting about J&J, it was announced there would be production delays. Why the media isn’t talking about the outright incompetence of Trudeau and his government in protecting Canadian lives is beyond me.

Therefore, the best thing you can do is get the first vaccine that you are offered. When you get notified to get your shot, don’t ask which one, just get it. For what matters the most (keeping you out of hospital or dying from COVID19), they all work roughly the same.

I urge you all to do your part, protect yourself, protect others, and let’s get ourselves out of this pandemic, and back to a normal life.

A Great Cause.

As an addendum I would like to encourage all of my readers to consider buying some merchandise from Conquer Covid 19. This all volunteer group did yeoman’s work providing PPE to physicians, health care workers and others in need. Last year they raised $2.4 million and donated around 3 million (!) pieces of PPE.

This year they are selling their extremely boring merchandise (check Ryan Reynolds take on it here) and proceeds will go to LTCfrontline foods, providing hot meals to those workers who are struggling in long term care homes and Call Auntie, an organization that helps Indigenous people navigate issues around COVID19.

Please click here and donate what you can.

One nobody trying to be like the two cool kids wearing ConquerCovid19 merchandise. Please consider donating generously.

Facts and Myths About the COVID Vaccine

Disclaimer: As always, the information I present here is meant to be an overall summary of what we know, and not specific medical advice for one person. If you have questions, please talk to your doctor.

As I write this blog, almost 52 million doses of the new COVID vaccines have been delivered to people around the world. Our knowledge about COVID (and the vaccines) continues to increase almost exponentially, and while we don’t know everything yet, here’s what we’ve learned so far.

Time to put the whole “Guinea Pig” argument to rest.

Many people have told me they don’t want to be a human “guinea pig” to test the vaccine on. The clinical trials on the vaccines (while quick) were thorough. More people have gotten their first dose of the vaccine than the entire population of Canada. If you get it now, you won’t be first. In fact you’ll be after this guy:

What if I have an allergic reaction?

After Britain warned against giving the Pfizer vaccine to people with a history of severe allergies, some people were concerned. However, now that we have given so many of these vaccines, we know that the rate of a severe allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) with the Pfizer vaccine is one in 90,090. Your odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime are 1 in 15,030. Remember, all the vaccine sites have Epipen.

The Moderna Vaccine is Better/Has Less Side Effects

Some people are waiting for the Moderna vaccine. However, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are equally effective. I had suggested that if your allergies were so bad that you needed an epipen, you might want to wait for the Moderna vaccine. But Canada’s federal government has done a poor job of ordering the vaccines. With Canada having deferred purchase of more of the Moderna vaccine (!), you probably should just get the first one you are offered.

I’m Worried About a Sore Arm and Other Symptoms After

Sore arm, fever, and muscle aches are all symptoms people can get after any vaccine. However, what’s important to note is that these are not side effects. A vaccine works by stimulating your immune system. If you get a cold, your immune system activates to fight the virus, and as part of that, will often give you a fever, and muscle aches. You may feel crummy, but your immune system is doing its job.

If this happens to you after a vaccine, it may be miserable to experience but at least you can take it as a sign your immune system is working, and you are getting a response to the vaccine.

It’s off label but I ensured that all of the resident of Bay Haven Nursing home got 1,000 mg of Acetaminophen three times a day the day before, the day of and the day after the vaccine. We have had no reports of flu like illnesses after the vaccine. I intend to take this myself before my second shot, and you may want to consider this as well.

I Am Pregnant or Trying to Get Pregnant

There were women of child bearing age in both the Moderna and Pfizer studies (although no pregnant women). The vaccine did not appear to cause issues. We routinely give other vaccines (like the flu shot) to pregnant women and it is felt to be safe.

When I study the science around it, there is no reason that the COVID vaccine should affect pregnancy. The Society of Obstetricians and Gynecologists of Canada has stated that: “Women who are pregnant or breastfeeding should be offered vaccination at anytime if they are eligible and no contraindications exist”. Please talk to your doctor about this.

But I Still Have to Wear a Mask/Get Swabbed/Get Screened!

Alas, yes you do. I share the frustration on this one. Health Canada only approves what it knows. The evidence from the studies on the vaccines was very strong that they would reduce your chance of getting COVID. However, to study whether the vaccine will reduce the risk of transmission is much more complicated. It requires a high level contact tracing which we don’t have in Canada.

However, every other successful vaccine in the past has reduced the ability to transmit whatever disease we were protecting against. That’s why we no longer have small pox, and until the rise of the renowned neurobiologist/brain surgeon Jenny McCarthy, had almost eliminated measles. I’m hoping that Health Canada will lift the requirement to wear masks for people vaccinated in the near future.

This should at least show you how much confidence they have in the Covid vaccines. I mean if an organization that historically takes it’s time to approve things moved so quickly when they saw the evidence for the Covid vaccines.

Are You Sure These Vaccines Were Tested Properly? They Were Approved Awfully Fast.

There was good reason to be approved quickly. As I mentioned in a previous blog, there was a significant reduction in bureaucracy. Everybody (drug companies/regulatory bodies/politicians) agreed we needed a vaccine as soon as possible, so the five years (!) of red tape was cut.

The second thing to keep in mind is that to test a vaccine, you have to expose people who had the vaccine to the illness. For a condition like shingles, you often times have to wait for years to see if the virus is effective, because as painful and awful as it is, Shingles is still relatively rare. It takes a LOT of time to accumulate the data needed to see if enough people benefited.

For COVID, one perverse benefit of the fact that the United States has one of, if not the worst responses to the pandemic in the world is that the virus is, well everywhere. That means the over 70,000 people in the studies could be exposed to the virus very quickly, and we could see very quickly if the vaccine worked.

Moreover, it’s a myth that all the drug companies who developed a vaccine were approved. There are 14 vaccines for COVID that were being developed. But if flawed, the trials were halted (like CSL in Australia or Sanofi-Glen‘s vaccine).

The Vaccine Is Genetic and Will Affect My DNA

Simply not true. The mRNA used in the vaccine will not affect your DNA. DNA is the stuff that makes you, well you. I can’t explain it any better than Dr. Abdurrahman:

I Don’t Trust Big Pharma/Bill Gates is Injecting Nanochips Into My Body/It’s an Illuminati Conspiracy

………. I got nothing. If you really believe this there’s nothing I can do to convince you otherwise.

Should I Get The Vaccine (Whichever one) When It’s My Turn?

YES! The lockdowns and economic harm caused by this pandemic are having a terrible toll on us. The social isolation, job loss, economic harm, mental illness and much, much more is devastating society.

If we want to visit our friends, if we want to go to a restaurant, if we want to go to Church/Mosque/Synagogue/Temple, if we want to travel, if we want to……..simply live a normal life again, we need to get everyone possible immunized. Without this, the pain we all suffer from this pandemic will continue.

Community doctors key to successful vaccination rollout

The following blog was co-written by Dr. Samantha Hill (current OMA President) and Dr. Adam Kassam (OMA President-Elect). It first appeared in the online version of the Toronto Star on January 11, 2021 and is reproduced here with the permission of the authours.

Drs. Samantha Hill and Adam Kassam

Images of elated physicians and other health care workers being immunized has been an emotional experience for our community. Our professional stoicism has given way to more fundamental and broadly shared human feelings: joy and optimism. 

For close to a year now, we have had to work at the very tip of the spear against the pandemic. This dangerous, exhausting and unpredictable work has taken its toll. That is why the vaccine represents a literal infusion of hope for us, our patients, families and communities.

We are thoroughly delighted for every colleague, long-term care resident and vulnerable person who is now a little bit safer. However, collectively, we are still a long way from defeating this disease. As we encounter record highs of cases, hospitalizations and — sadly — deaths, only a fraction of Ontario’s physicians have received a first dose of the vaccine. 

For understandable logistical reasons — which include the need for special cold storage — most of the first vaccines were administered in tertiary hospital centres, which have admirably risen to the immense challenge of organizing the safe and efficient deployment of the vaccines. 

Getting everyone vaccinated successfully relies on two key factors: the federal government’s continuous and predictable procurement and delivery of the vaccines to Ontario, and the provincial government’s ability to distribute and administer the vaccine to Ontarians.

To that end, as approvals for other vaccines occur nationally and vaccine supplies ramp up across the country, we will need to move beyond hospitals to build capacity to be provincially successful in rapidly immunizing our population. These centres are already stretched thin, simultaneously treating a growing number of sick COVID-19 patients and the usual hospital health care needs of Ontario.

Which is precisely why, the next leg in this crucial vaccine race requires a co-ordinated community effort to vaccinate front-line health-care workers and the vulnerable patients both within and outside of congregate care settings.

Approximately 60 per cent of physician services occur outside of the hospitals. Many of these community doctors — both primary care and specialists — have direct knowledge of their vulnerable patients. They have developed relationships, credibility and bonds of trust through their continuity of care, all of which are crucial for success of any province-wide vaccination program. Grassroots, community doctors will also be essential to co-ordinating the necessary two-dose schedule.

Community doctors must have clarity on access to vaccines, not only for their own well being, but also for planning purposes for their patients. They have been caring for their communities for years, and these doctors are an invaluable resource with experience, expertise and capacity that must be leveraged. Even now, in this next stage, Ontarians deserve a trusted medical professional — many of whom come from, live and work in diverse communities — upon whom to rely.

This pandemic has challenged every facet of our society. In Ontario, thousands of people have contracted and died from this terrible disease. Our already-precarious health care system has been buckling under this added pressure. Disruption to businesses, communities and families has been widespread.

We all desperately want this devastation to stop. Our path out of this is with these vaccines. Doctors are, unfailingly, at our posts and prepared to help. While this pandemic has been a marathon, we need to now think of the vaccine rollout as a sprint. Because in this race, lives and livelihoods are at stake.